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Bitcoin finally looks alive again.

After months of going nowhere, the price pushed up toward $98,000 and is now holding above $96,000. For the first time in a while, crypto traders are feeling some real momentum. But beneath the surface, not everyone is convinced this move will last.

According to Michael Nadeau, the market’s structure tells a more bearish story, one that could mean this rally could fade if conditions are not met.

The hidden force holding Bitcoin back

One of the biggest factors shaping Bitcoin right now is not hype, ETFs, or social media buzz. It is real interest rates.

Nadeau points out that Bitcoin often struggles when real interest rates rise. This happened clearly in 2022, when aggressive rate hikes crushed crypto prices. What stands out today is that since mid-October, real rates have started climbing again, and Bitcoin’s relationship with them has turned negative.

In simple terms, when safer investments start paying more, money tends to move away from risky assets like crypto. That shift can quietly limit how far Bitcoin can run.

Why cycles still matter in crypto

Many traders love talking about the famous four-year Bitcoin cycle. Nadeau believes in cycles too, but not in a rigid, copy-paste way.

“I’m a firm believer in cycles,” he said, but added that markets evolve.

Instead of focusing on a calendar, he looks at how money flows through the system. In his view, crypto cycles usually move through three stages:

  • An early bull phase
  • A period of wealth creation
  • A phase where that wealth gets distributed

When he looks at this cycle, Nadeau sees signs that all three stages may already be behind us.

Signs the easy money phase is over

Earlier in the cycle, crypto saw explosive growth. DeFi lending boomed. New crypto companies raised huge sums. IPOs and digital asset treasury plays took off. Marketing budgets were everywhere.

Now, much of that energy has cooled.

To Nadeau, this looks less like the start of something new and more like a market that has already had its big run and is now sorting out who stays and who exits.

The one level Bitcoin must reclaim

From a chart perspective, Nadeau is watching one level very closely: the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin lost this level in October and then fell around 35%. Since then, on-chain data shows heavy coin movement, a classic sign of late-cycle rotation.

He expected a bounce back toward this zone, roughly between $101,000 and $102,000, and the recent move into the high $90,000s fits that script.

But here is the catch.

Unless Bitcoin can move above that level and stay there for several weeks, the rally does not become real support. “I’m not convinced this is a durable move,” Nadeau said, stressing that short-term strength alone is not enough.

ETFs are helping, but they are not the whole story

There are some positives. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing fresh inflows, and long-term holders appear less eager to send coins to exchanges, which reduces selling pressure.

Still, Nadeau views these as supportive, not decisive. Without a clear technical breakout, ETF demand alone may not be enough to push Bitcoin into a new long-term uptrend.

Over the next few weeks, Bitcoin will need to prove it can turn resistance into support. If it cannot, this burst of strength could end up being just another pause, not the start of the next major run.