A crypto rally is happening today, Nov. 25, with Bitcoin and most altcoins being in the green. Bitcoin price jumped to $87,625, while top altcoins like Bonk, Kaspa, Sui, XRP, and Ethebna were up by over 5% in the last 24 hours. The market cap of all coins jumped to over $3 trillion. 

Top crypto gainers on Nov. 25

Crypto rally triggered by Fed interest rate cut optimism

One potential reason behind the ongoing crypto rally is that investors are optimistic about the Federal Reserve. Data compiled by Polymarket and Kalshi shows that the odds of a rate cut jumped to 82%. The same happened on the CME Fed Tool whose odds jumped to over 78%.

These odds jumped after a series of statements by dovish Federal Reserve officials, who expressed their support for a rate cut in the next meeting in December this year.

John Williams, the head of the New York Fed, said that he would support a rate cut in December, sentiment that Christopher Waller and Mary Daly shared on Monday.

Cryptocurrency prices normally do well when the Fed is cutting interest or when officials are considering doing so.  Most notably, the upcoming rate cut will come at a time when the bank is ending its quantitative tightening policies.

At the same time, the closely-watched Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has continued moving downwards and is now at 3.91%, much lower than the December high of 4.65%. SOFR is an important figure that shows the real interest rate that banks borrow from the Federal Reserve. 

SOFR | Source: FRED

Meanwhile, interest rate cuts will come at a time when money supply is rising globally. US public debt has jumped to a record high, while the global M2 money supply has jumped in the past few months.

Upbit IPO is boosting cryptocurrency prices 

Meanwhile, the crypto market rally is happening after a report showed that Upbit, the biggest exchange in South Korea, was considering an IPO in New York after merging with Naver.

Upbit will join other top cryptocurrency companies that have gone public this year. Bullish and Gemini have already gone public in the US, while Kraken has filed to go public soon.

Other crypto companies like Figure and Circle have already gone public in the past few months. 

Upbit will be a bigger deal than Gemini and Bullish because of its size as it is one of the biggest exchanges globally. CoinMarketCap data shows that it handled over $2 billion in volume in the last 24 hours, higher than Gemini’s $277 million.

Altcoin ETF approvals 

The crypto market rally is happening after the launch of the Grayscale and Franklin XRP ETFs on Monday. The two funds recorded initial day inflows of $67 million and $27 million, respectively. These inflows brought the total in the XRP to over $586 million. 

The SEC also allowed the launch of the first Dogecoin ETF under the Securities Act of 1933. The Grayscale DOGE ETF now has over $1.4 million in net assets. Bitwise and 21Shares will also launch the ETF approvals.

More altcoin ETFs are coming in the near term, including the Grayscale Chainlink ETF (GLNK).

Potential dead-cat bounce 

The other potential reason for the ongoing crypto rally is that this could be a bull trap or a dead-cat bounce, which is a situation where an asset pumps temporarily and then resumes the downtrend.

These dead-cat bounces are popular during bear markets. One way to avoid being caught up in them is being patient and waiting for Bitcoin and other altcoins to move above the key short-term and longer-term moving averages. More gains are also confirmed when these coins move above the Supertrend indicator.

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